以打游击的思路进行波段操作 河北医科大学教务处

Guotai Junan, chief market analyst: some stocks have long-term investment opportunities Sina Sina Finance App Level2:A shares speed Kanpan: Live Online bloggers to guide the Securities Times reporter Liang Xue before and after the Spring Festival, the international financial market volatility, especially the exchange rate problems of public concern. At the same time, the Asia Pacific market is not calm, and also has some impact on the A share market after the festival. For China’s surrounding market volatility, investors should be how to deal with, which industries and sectors worthy of attention, investors should take what kind of strategy? With these questions, securities times and China Securities Corporation (ID:quanshangcn) reporter interviewed Lin Longpeng, chief market analyst at Guotai junan. Show long-term investment opportunities Lin Longpeng said, in the monkey year, investors overall operating strategy should be the monkey city (concussion city) operation strategy. After the 3 round of adjustment, the stock index has been a large decline in stocks, but also Nishajuxia, part of the stock began gradually revealed in the long-term investment opportunities. Because of the international situation and domestic economic uncertainty is still large, the stock is difficult to appear obvious trend of opportunity, Lin Longpeng said that in 2016, investors to reduce the overall rate of return is expected to enhance the position control, pay more attention to market timing and band operation. The pursuit of relative income investors need to focus on high dividend blue chips, and the pursuit of absolute returns to investors is proposed to focus on high growth and extension of the acquisition of uncertainty of small cap stocks. During the Spring Festival, international oil prices fell first and then rose, the international price of gold singing all the way phenomenon, Lin Longpeng said that the international oil price fluctuations reflect the expectations of investors on the real economy, the international gold price reflects investor risk preferences. Although oil prices fluctuate, but the whole is low consolidation, indicating that the market is not worried about the economy. And the price of gold singing loudly shows that investors have high risk aversion. "In general, investors’ risk appetite is difficult to increase substantially," Lin Longpeng said. Since 2014, the logic of the stock market’s rise is the risk-free return, which pushes investors’ risk appetite. But the logic has been severely damaged. In recent years, the decline of investors’ risk appetite, in turn, has led to the decline of risk-free returns. As a result of the decline in risk appetite, investors are more willing to configure gold, treasury bonds, these risk averse assets, push up prices, so that risk-free interest rates go down. The same two factors, but the logic is different, the impact on the stock market is completely different. In recent days, the Asia Pacific market turbulence has an impact on the A share market, and will have an adverse impact on investors’ risk appetite. A shares have appeared in leading Asia Pacific market adjustment, short-term huge decline, investors sell sentiment is very strong, weak sell power. Lin Longpeng said, short-term fluctuations in the surrounding market has little impact on the domestic stock market, but if the surrounding market in the middle and the middle of the bear, which may have a greater impact on the domestic stock market. Investors should pay close attention to the long-term trend of the surrounding market and deal with the uncertainty of the market by controlling the positions. Supply side reform brings thematic investment opportunities, the reform of supply side will be a theory

国泰君安首席市场分析师:部分股票出现中长线投资机会 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导   证券时报记者 梁雪   春节前后,国际金融市场波动较大,尤其汇率问题颇受关注。与此同时,亚太市场并不平静,对节后A股市场也带来一些影响。   对于我国周边市场的波动,投资者应该怎样应对、哪些行业和板块值得关注、投资者应当采取怎样的策略?带着这些问题,证券时报・券商中国(ID:quanshangcn)记者对国泰君安首席市场分析师林隆鹏进行了专访。   显现中长线投资机会   林隆鹏表示,在猴年,投资者总体操作策略应该是猴市(震荡市)的操作策略。经过3轮调整之后,股指跌幅已经较大,个股也是泥沙俱下,部分股票开始逐步显露中长线的投资机会。   由于国际形势及国内经济不确定性还是较大,股指难以出现明显的趋势性机会,林隆鹏表示,在2016年,投资者总体要降低对收益率的预期,增强对仓位的控制,更多注意择时交易和波段操作。追求相对收益的投资者需重点关注高股息率蓝筹股,而追求绝对收益投资者建议重点关注成长和外延收购确定性较高的小市值股票。   对于春节期间国际油价先跌后涨、国际金价一路高歌现象,林隆鹏表示,国际油价涨跌反映投资者对实体经济的预期,国际金价涨跌反映投资者风险偏好。油价虽然有波动,但整体是在低位盘整,说明市场对经济的担忧不减。而金价一路高歌说明投资者避险情绪很高。   “总体而言,投资者风险偏好难以出现大幅增加”,林隆鹏称,自2014年以来,股市上涨的逻辑就是无风险收益下行推升投资者风险偏好。但是,这个逻辑已遭到严重破坏。近期,投资者风险偏好下降反过来使无风险收益超预期下降,由于风险偏好下降导致投资者更愿意配置黄金、国债这些规避风险的资产,推升价格,使无风险利率下行。同样是两个因素,但逻辑却不同,对股市的影响也完全不一样。   近期,亚太市场不平静对A股市场确实产生影响,会对投资者风险偏好产生不利影响。A股已经领先于亚太市场出现大幅调整,短期跌幅巨大,投资者惜售情绪很强,杀跌动力较弱。   林隆鹏说,短期周边市场的这种波动对国内股市影响不大,但是,如果周边市场全面中期走熊那可能会对国内股市带来较大影响。投资者应该密切关注周边市场中长期走势,通过控制仓位来应对市场的不确定性。   供给侧改革   带来主题性投资机会   供给侧改革将是一个较为长期的过程,“冰冻三尺非一日之寒”,对相关行业的改善将会是一个系统性工程。   林隆鹏表示,投资与实体经济不完全一致。需要更多地关注供给侧改革会给投资者带来边际上的预期改善。所以,供给侧改革会带来主题性、交易性的投资机会。猴年传统行业可能难以出现较大的改善,但是有一些新兴行业的基本面确实会有持续向好,比如“口红效应”下的传媒娱乐行业。   “我比较看好新兴产业。顺大势者才能赚大钱。”林隆鹏称,中国当前最重要的两大趋势分别是改革和产业经济结构转型。当人均国内生产总值(GDP)超过4000美元的时候,产业结构就由原来的重工业化阶段向消费服务与科技创新阶段转型,这是大势所趋。所以,传统产业的投资机会就是在于改革和转型,哪个行业更早跨过改革攻坚期,就会有更大的发展和趋势机会;哪个公司能够更快转型成功,就会更具有投资价值。而新兴产业主要就是集中在消费服务与科技创新上,是长期的趋势性投资机会。   谈及今年投资风险,林隆鹏表示,最大风险在于全球经济增速较大程度低于市场预期,在外则导致全球股市波动加大,对内则拖累国内经济发展,从而影响到国内投资者风险偏好。   对此,林隆鹏表示,应对上述风险,需通过有意识地控制仓位来把握市场波动带来的机会。对投资者而言,要以震荡市的思维进行操作,不要时刻满仓――这是一般投资者很常见的毛病。然后,从中线的角度选择一些较有成长性确定性的标的,盯紧这些股票,以打游击的思路进行波段操作,做熟少做生。 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: